Forecasts suggest the U.S. housing market could rebound in 2026, with experts predicting nearly a 10% jump in home sales.
Experts Predict Nearly 10% Jump in U.S. Home Sales for 2026
After several years of market slowdowns and affordability challenges, experts are predicting a potential rebound in home sales in 2026 — but opinions differ on just how strong the recovery will be. Projections from institutions like Fannie Mae show optimism about declining mortgage rates and increased buyer activity, while other analysts foresee slower growth and lingering affordability issues, especially in regional markets like Oxford, Mississippi.
Key Market Trends for 2026
Mortgage Rates: Most forecasts suggest stabilization or a gradual decline. Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed rate to drop below 6% by the end of 2026, while the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects a slightly higher average near 6.4%. Local buyers in Oxford could see improved affordability if rates trend lower, though conditions will depend on broader economic factors such as inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and bond markets.
Home Sales: Nationally, Fannie Mae forecasts home sales to rise over 9% in 2026, reaching 5.16 million units. For Lafayette County, this could mean more listings and renewed market activity as pent-up demand from sidelined buyers begins to re-emerge. A decline in rates may also ease the “rate-lock” effect, encouraging more homeowners to sell.
Home Prices and Affordability: Home prices are expected to rise modestly, with national appreciation rates in the low single digits. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts a 2026 median home price near $420,000. In Oxford, steady demand for quality housing — driven by the University of Mississippi community, new developments, and local amenities — will likely keep prices competitive, though affordability may remain a challenge for first-time buyers.
Housing Inventory: The overall housing supply is projected to improve in 2026 as construction rebounds. However, a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels remains unlikely. New single-family starts are increasing, but multifamily completions may lag. Locally, Oxford could see more new builds and listings, though demand will continue to outpace supply in desirable neighborhoods.
Demographic Shifts: Millennials and Gen Z are expected to drive much of the buyer demand in 2026. In Oxford, this trend aligns with young professionals, families, and investors seeking homes near the university or within walking distance of downtown. Persistent affordability challenges may keep some in the rental market, fueling continued interest in single-family rentals and student housing.
What This Means for Oxford Buyers and Sellers
If mortgage rates continue to fall and sales strengthen, 2026 could mark a turning point for the Oxford real estate market. Buyers may find new opportunities as listings rise, while sellers could benefit from increased competition and a steady flow of demand.
At Kiamie Real Estate, we’re closely tracking these national and local trends to help clients make confident, informed decisions. Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or investing in the Oxford area, understanding where the market is headed can give you a strategic edge.
Contact Kiamie Real Estate today to discuss how the 2026 housing outlook could shape your next move in Oxford and Lafayette County.